Como a ‘Fortune’ se Enganou, de cabo a rabo…
A última das “Notes from the Field” do Simon Black, o nosso “americano voador”, chega de Kiev, escrita a 4 de Julho… Simon há muito que chama a atenção para o processo de mudança radical em que o mundo mergulhou, para o que isso realmente significa e para… os modos de ganhar dinheiro com isso. Como ele diz, disponibiliza “actionable intelligence for personal liberty and financial prosperity, in good times and bad”… Nesta saborosa “nota de campo”, o Simon começa por se divertir recordando um artigo da Fortune e desmontando ponto por ponto o disparate pegado dessa inesquecível prosa. A imprensa ‘mainstream’, para quem nela crê e confia, pode ser mesmo muito perigosa… Sobretudo, em tempos de mudança radical como os que temos o caro privilégio de viver. Os que acreditaram neste artigo da ‘Fortune’ que o digam! Thanks, Simon.
” July 4, 2014
In one of the most ill-timed columns ever written, Fortune Magazine published an article entitled “10 stocks to last the decade” on August 14, 2000.
The NASDAQ Composite Index was at 3849.69… and within days of the article being published, the index would begin a ruthless decline, taking a whopping 13 years to return to that level.
And as for the 10 stocks which were supposed to last the decade? Two of them (Nortel, Enron) went bust entirely.
One of them (Morgan Stanley) would have gone bust if it hadn’t been for a $107 BILLION taxpayer bailout.
Others (Univision, Genentech) were bought out at valuations substantially lower than their August 2000 levels.
The remaining ones (like Nokia) are still out there somewhere, but their stock prices have declined as much as 83% over the last fourteen years.
To put it bluntly, not a single company on Fortune’s list of titanic, unbeatable stocks managed to generate a positive return for investors. Everyone lost.
In fairness, this isn’t a dig against Fortune; nearly EVERYONE thought that Enron was a sure bet back in 2000. (Although Fortune actually named Enron “America’s most innovative company” for six years in a row from ’96 to ’01…)
Back then no one could imagine that Enron and Nortel would soon cease to exist. Or that Nokia’s brand value would be virtually wiped out by Steve Jobs and a bunch of scrappy Koreans.
This is really a fantastic example of how a herd mentality forms about the sanctity and staying power of certain institutions.
It’s human nature to believe that whoever is in the lead now will always be in the lead.
And it’s the same for countries…”