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John Robb: ‘Califado’ Ameaça Arábia Saudita



O ‘Califado’ é kryptonite moral para o reino da Casa de Saud… A Arábia Saudita está ameaçada pela impotência e pela desagregação, na análise de um dos mais singulares e credenciados analistas das matérias do terrorismo. John Robb submete a “expansionist jihad” do Califado e a sua acumulação de “capital violência” (“they don’t just accumulate wealth and territory. They are also accumulating violence capital” ) a uma análise coerente com a matriz teórica que definiu em “Brave New War: The Next Stage of Terrorism and the End of Globalization” e utilizando o aparelho conceptual que desenvolveu à volta do seu “Open-source warfare”. 

 

Saudi Arabia’s Kryptonite

John Robb – Posted: 24 Jan 2015 03:59 PM PST

If #ISIS can recruit people from nearly every country in the world, how well do you think it could do in Saudi Arabia if given an unfettered opportunity to do so…  If it can recruit French military personnel (including men from elite units), how would Saudi units fare? 

The answer is that ISIS would do very, very well in the Kingdom.  Here is why the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is vulnerable to a ragtag network like ISIS:

    ISIS is an aggressively expansionist fundamentalist jihad.  It kills, enslaves, or routs unbelievers, moderates, apostates, etc. wherever it finds them, which is the ultimate manifestation of Wahhabi fundamentalism.

    Unfortunately for the KSA, this the same belief system underlying the legitimacy of the House of Saud and the same fundamentalism the Kingdom has spent the last century beating into the heads of their subjects.

    This means that ISIS is moral kryptonite.  A kryptonite built specifically to kill the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.  A kryptonite that breaks down the moral cohesion that binds the KSA together.  A kryptonite that creates competitive centers of gravity that will rip the country apart.

A century ago, the House of Saud started a jihad to do exactly what ISIS is doing today.  In that earlier case, the Saudi Ikhwan (a fundamentalist militia that is similar to ISIS) expanded until it conquered the territory that is now Saudi Arabia.

The Ikhwan eventually turned on the Sauds when they called an end to the jihad.  The Sauds won that fight and spent the next century building a variant of Wahhabism to legitimize their rule.  However, the Sauds never did eradicate the part Wahhabism that seeks expansionist jihad, and this will return to haunt them. 

JR

Make room for Violence Capital

John Robb – Posted: 24 Jan 2015 02:25 PM PST

The jihadi entrepreneurs of ISIS don’t just accumulate wealth and territory.  They are also accumulating violence capital. 

What is violence capital?  

In traditional businesses, money is the primary form of capital.  In on-line businesses, network capital (the size of the network it controls or influences) is often more valuable than the financial capital it has.  In the fluid world of jihadi entrepreneurship, violence capital is often most important form of capital. 

Groups and individuals accumulate violence capital through the calculated application of violence.  It’s expended on the following:

    Credibility and Reputation. 

    Coercive Influence. 

    Instant FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt).

Violence capital comes in lots of different forms and is expended in lots of different ways — from the neighborhood bully to the petty mobster to petty tyrants to global superpowers to the Mongols (the unmatched, epic purveyors of violence capital).

Hopefully, you can see that it’s a useful tool for thinking about the use and value of violence.

In the case of ISIS, the violence capital they are accumulating is of a special type.  They are building their capital by:

    killing,

    enslaving, or

    routing

any and all apostates, unbelievers, moderates, etc. 

Why are they doing this?  To become credible as an expansionist jihad within the fundamentalist Wahhabi tradition.  A credibility can only be built with lots of violence capital. 

JR  


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