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Os Refugiados Vão Fazer Baixar os Salários na Europa…



Paradoxalmente, foi Marine Le Pen o primeiro dirigente político europeu a denunciar o caso da avalanche de refugiados islâmicos como “tráfico de escravos” destinados a ser usados como um suplemento de oferta para fazer baixar os salários na Alemanha e na Europa.

Os marxistas teriam dito que estes refugiados constituem “um exército industrial de reserva para ser usado contra o proletariado”. Mas, nos tempos que correm, a esquerda que ainda tem voz não diz nada disso. Sinais dos tempos nada ortodoxos que atravessamos, tempos que aboliram a “normalidade” na política e que muitas surpresas nos parecem reservar.

Se Marine Le Pen, em defesa da “França de baixo” e do seu eleitorado popular, usou uma agressiva linguagem política para atacar Merkel e denunciar o interesse da Alemanha na “importação de escravos”, outra bem diferente e muito polida é a linguagem dos empresários alemães que apoiam a “importação dos escravos” denunciada por Marine.

Diz a ‘Spiegel’ que “German Companies See Refugees as Opportunity”. E, confirmando a denúncia da dirigente da direita radical francesa, explica: “The German business community views the recent influx of refugees as an opportunity to help companies grow and ensure long-term prosperity.”

Tudo bem, portanto, no melhor dos mundos, onde a economia e a competitividade tão bem casam com a solidariedade e a moral. Ou será que… como o interesse específico da Alemanha mais uma vez diverge do interesse da maioria dos Estados da União, estamos já a assistir a mais uma batalha (das grandes) na guerra económica e a mais um rebentar das costuras políticas da UE?

Ainda segundo a ‘Spiegel’, “the influx also provides opportunities for the German economy. Despite the official unemployment figure of almost 2.8 million, the business community urgently needs workers. And every refugee or migrant who finds work becomes less of a drain on the public coffers. The German economy is dependent on immigration, both from Europe as well as people entering the country due to asylum rights in Germany. With the German population shrinking, businesses are unable to fill many jobs, and specialized workers are increasingly rare. This trend will only be exacerbated in the coming years. It’s a development that jeopardizes the country’s future prosperity. (…)

A Growing Labor Shortage

There are currently close to 46 million people of working age in Germany, who are theoretically capable of working. Without immigration, that number will decline to less than 29 million in about 30 years. Even if the retirement age were raised to 70 and the number of women and men in the workforce were equal, the total workforce would only increase by 4.4 million people. (…)

A smaller workforce translates into fewer people paying into the pension fund and health insurance systems, fewer people consuming and producing goods, and fewer people paying taxes to pay for expenses like schools and road construction. Fewer people also translates into a reduced potential for growth and less affluence.

Of course, in light of technological development and the digitization of life, it is difficult to predict future workforce requirements. Nevertheless, a study conducted by the Bertelsmann Foundation concluded, in every scenario it examined, that there is no getting around immigration. “If net immigration declines significantly, the aging of society will create intractable problems for the social security systems and the national budget,” says Lutz Schneider of the Coburg University of Applied Sciences, who examined the consequences of immigration for the Bertelsmann Foundation.

The German Ailment

Germany will be unable to fulfill its needs through the European labor market, which allows the free movement of workers within the EU, alone. For now, most immigrants still come from European Union countries, and numbers have been especially high in recent years because of the EU’s eastward expansion and the economic crisis in Southern Europe. But this situation will not continue forever.

“As the crisis-ridden countries see their economies recover, immigration from EU countries will decline in the medium term,” says Schneider. In addition, all European countries are suffering from the German ailment, namely that their populations are shrinking and aging. Economist Schneider predicts that the average annual number of immigrants from EU countries will decline to 70,000 by 2050. “This is why we will be even more dependent on people from third countries immigrating to Germany for work in the future, people who now come to Germany primarily as refugees,” says Schneider.

Germany needs more than just highly qualified academics. It also needs trained individuals with moderate to minimal qualifications. About a million jobs have been created for foreigners in the last four years in fields requiring no formal training: supporting staff in nursing care, restaurants and agriculture. The number of unfilled positions is constantly rising and was close to 600,000 in July. (…).


Paradoxalmente, foi Marine Le Pen o primeiro dirigente político europeu a denunciar o caso da avalanche de refugiados islâmicos como “tráfico de escravos” destinados a ser usados como um suplemento de oferta para fazer baixar os salários na Alemanha e na Europa.

 

Os marxistas teriam dito que estes refugiados constituem “um exército industrial de reserva para ser usado contra o proletariado”. Mas, nos tempos que correm, a esquerda que ainda tem voz não diz nada disso. Sinais dos tempos nada ortodoxos que atravessamos, tempos que aboliram a “normalidade” na política e que muitas surpresas nos parecem reservar.

 

Se Marine Le Pen, em defesa da “França de baixo” e do seu eleitorado popular, usou uma agressiva linguagem política para atacar Merkel e denunciar o interesse da Alemanha na “importação de escravos”, outra bem diferente e muito polida é a linguagem dos empresários alemães que apoiam a “importação dos escravos” denunciada por Marine.

 

Diz a ‘Spiegel’ que “German Companies See Refugees as Opportunity”. E, confirmando a denúncia da dirigente da direita radical francesa, explica: “The German business community views the recent influx of refugees as an opportunity to help companies grow and ensure long-term prosperity.”

 

Tudo bem, portanto, no melhor dos mundos, onde a economia e a competitividade tão bem casam com a solidariedade e a moral. Ou será que… como o interesse específico da Alemanha mais uma vez diverge do interesse da maioria dos Estados da União, estamos já a assistir a mais uma batalha (das grandes) na guerra económica e a mais um rebentar das costuras políticas da UE?

 

Ainda segundo a ‘Spiegel’, “the influx also provides opportunities for the German economy. Despite the official unemployment figure of almost 2.8 million, the business community urgently needs workers. And every refugee or migrant who finds work becomes less of a drain on the public coffers. The German economy is dependent on immigration, both from Europe as well as people entering the country due to asylum rights in Germany. With the German population shrinking, businesses are unable to fill many jobs, and specialized workers are increasingly rare. This trend will only be exacerbated in the coming years. It’s a development that jeopardizes the country’s future prosperity. (…)

 

A Growing Labor Shortage

 

There are currently close to 46 million people of working age in Germany, who are theoretically capable of working. Without immigration, that number will decline to less than 29 million in about 30 years. Even if the retirement age were raised to 70 and the number of women and men in the workforce were equal, the total workforce would only increase by 4.4 million people. (…)


A smaller workforce translates into fewer people paying into the pension fund and health insurance systems, fewer people consuming and producing goods, and fewer people paying taxes to pay for expenses like schools and road construction. Fewer people also translates into a reduced potential for growth and less affluence.

 

Of course, in light of technological development and the digitization of life, it is difficult to predict future workforce requirements. Nevertheless, a study conducted by the Bertelsmann Foundation concluded, in every scenario it examined, that there is no getting around immigration. “If net immigration declines significantly, the aging of society will create intractable problems for the social security systems and the national budget,” says Lutz Schneider of the Coburg University of Applied Sciences, who examined the consequences of immigration for the Bertelsmann Foundation.

 

The German Ailment

 

Germany will be unable to fulfill its needs through the European labor market, which allows the free movement of workers within the EU, alone. For now, most immigrants still come from European Union countries, and numbers have been especially high in recent years because of the EU’s eastward expansion and the economic crisis in Southern Europe. But this situation will not continue forever.

 

“As the crisis-ridden countries see their economies recover, immigration from EU countries will decline in the medium term,” says Schneider. In addition, all European countries are suffering from the German ailment, namely that their populations are shrinking and aging. Economist Schneider predicts that the average annual number of immigrants from EU countries will decline to 70,000 by 2050. “This is why we will be even more dependent on people from third countries immigrating to Germany for work in the future, people who now come to Germany primarily as refugees,” says Schneider.

 

Germany needs more than just highly qualified academics. It also needs trained individuals with moderate to minimal qualifications. About a million jobs have been created for foreigners in the last four years in fields requiring no formal training: supporting staff in nursing care, restaurants and agriculture. The number of unfilled positions is constantly rising and was close to 600,000 in July. (…).

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