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31 de Julho: Agenda Global da semana

A síntese dos próximos acontecimentos da semana, vistos e previstos pela Stratfor.

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Intelligence Guidance: Week of July 31, 2011

August 1, 2011 | 1046 GMT

AFP/Getty Images| Syrian anti-government protesters in Hama on July 29

Editor’s Note: The following is an internal STRATFOR document produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. This document is not a forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.

New Guidance

1. Syria: Syrian security forces launched a large-scale crackdown in Hama and other cities ahead of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan. We are also hearing that the ruling Baath Party is going to undertake some significant structural changes in an effort to stem the continuing unrest. How effective is this two-track approach? Does it reflect a sense of strength and control by the regime or a loss of options and ideas? What are other regional and international players, particularly Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the United States, attempting in regard to Syria?

2. Turkey: The resignation of the top members of the general staff of the Turkish armed forces brings to the forefront the question of the civilian-military balance in Turkey. Thus far, it appears the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has the advantage. However, given the history of civilian-military relations in Turkey, that assumption needs to be scrutinized. Will there be countermoves? Does this development mark a turning point in Turkish civilian-military balance? If so, what changes?

3. China: The July 23 railway crash in China has dominated public discourse, prompting the Chinese public to raise significant questions and criticize the leadership and its handling of the tragedy. China’s bureaucracy and endemic corruption are regarded as major contributing factors to the accident, and public distrust toward the authorities is rising. How does the Communist Party of China bring this incident under control? Can it? Was this incident due to problems only in the Railways Ministry, or does it reflect deeper issues in China? Are there reviews of other Chinese infrastructure and technology projects under way, including Chinese development of civilian airliners and an examination of the surge of construction that took place ahead of the 2008 Olympics?

4. Russia: Russian President Dmitri Medvedev is scheduled to announce a revised list of state-controlled companies that will be part of the upcoming privatization auction sale. This list is part of a broader Russian plan for modernization and economic restructuring. What countries will be allowed into the privatization bids, and how does that reflect the political considerations of the various players? How does the continued Russian economic restructuring impact Moscow’s European relations and emerging disagreements within Europe regarding Russia?

Existing Guidance

1. North Korea: Pyongyang appears to be taking steps to restart international negotiations. Why does the move come at this time? How stable is the North’s regime? What role is China playing in this re-engagement, and how much control or influence does Beijing really have over Pyongyang?

2. Iran/Iraq: The Iranian troop movements near Kurdish areas of Iraq appear more than the usual seasonal activity. What is Iran doing? How does this impact U.S. plans to withdraw from Iraq? What role does Turkey play?

3. Iran/Saudi Arabia: Several indicators imply that negotiations are taking place between Iran and Saudi Arabia. We need to watch for signs of concessions from both sides in places like Bahrain, Lebanon and Iraq. We need to play this dialogue forward and understand how it impacts the U.S. position in the region. Are these talks taking place independent of the United States? What is the status of U.S.-Iranian back-channel negotiations, particularly with respect to the structure of U.S. forces in Iraq?

4. Yemen: What is the status of Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh? How likely is a negotiated settlement in Yemen? What are the current views and plans of Saudi Arabia?

5. Pakistan/Afghanistan: New U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta declared that the defeat of al Qaeda is “within reach,” reinforcing the White House’s attempts to redefine and to reshape the perception of the war in Afghanistan. Pakistan remains at the heart of this strategy. What is going on behind the scenes with Washington and Islamabad, and what is possible this quarter in terms of U.S. progress toward reorienting the Pakistani role in Afghanistan? We need to continue to examine the potential for a new, more aggressive push for political accommodation in Afghanistan. We also need to look more closely at the Taliban. They already perceive themselves to be winning the Afghan war. Do they perceive this shift in U.S. intentions? To what degree will they complicate the U.S. military drawdown, and do we foresee any shifts in operational practices?

6. Iraq: The deadline for a drawdown of U.S. military forces from Iraq looms. According to the current Status of Forces Agreement, U.S. forces are mandated to be out of the country by the end of 2011. Washington has been unable to negotiate an extension or new agreement, and Iran’s political levers in Iraq thus far appear enough to keep these negotiations from advancing. Is the impasse between Washington and Baghdad resolvable in the near future, or will the United States be forced to remove its most important leverage (U.S. troops) from Iraq and the immediate region? Does the removal of U.S. forces lead to an immediate rise in Iranian regional influence? What levers does Iran have to press its agenda? How far is Iran willing to go? How are the Arab regimes looking at the potential U.S. withdrawal and the Iranian implications?

EURASIA

  • Aug. 1: Russian President Dmitri Medvedev will announce a revised list of state-controlled companies that will be part of the upcoming round of privatization.
  • Aug. 1: Belarus will reduce export duties on oil and oil byproducts exported outside its customs union with Russia and Kazakhstan.
  • Aug. 2: Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi will begin an international tour that will start with visits to Albania and Poland. Discussions will focus on cooperation and security issues. Yang’s subsequent visits will include Sudan and South Sudan.
  • Aug. 3: Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi will begin a two-day visit to Moscow. Salehi is expected to meet Russian Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko to discuss transportation routes between the two countries.
  • Aug. 4: The European Central Bank’s governing council is expected to meet in Brussels and to announce new interest rates following the meeting.
  • Aug. 4: The French Court of Justice is expected to decide whether to open a judicial inquiry into current International Monetary Fund head Christine Lagarde’s involvement in a 2008 arbitration payout during her tenure as France’s finance minister.
  • Aug. 4: The trial of the four men arrested for plotting an attack against the Danish newspaper that published cartoon images of the Prophet Mohammad will occur in Copenhagen.

MIDDLE EAST/SOUTH ASIA

  • Aug. 1: Gen. Fun Wende, head of the People’s Armed Police in China’s Jiangsu province, will wrap up a visit to Israel that was aimed at improving police cooperation.
  • Aug. 1: The Pakistani National Assembly will hold a session at the request of Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari.
  • Aug. 1: Iran is expected to stop oil exports to India if the issue of payment is not resolved.
  • Aug. 1: Iran’s air force will begin a major military maneuver intended to counter possible threats against Iran and it will begin researching ways to manufacture equipment and arms using only domestic capabilities.
  • Aug. 1: The Indian Parliament’s monsoon session will begin. Several bills dealing with corruption, women’s rights, food security and land acquisition will be debated.
  • Aug. 3: Ousted Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and his two sons, as well as former Interior Minister Habib el-Adly, will go on trial in Cairo’s convention center for their involvement in the killing of protesters as well as other corruption charges.

EAST ASIA

  • Aug. 1-13: Cambodia, the United States, Canada, India, China, Japan, Singapore, Russia and Vietnam will continue a military exercise in Mongolia.
  • Aug. 1: China’s manufacturing could contract for the first time in a year as output and new orders decline, according to preliminary data for the purchasing managers’ index.
  • Aug. 1: A moratorium Indonesia recently imposed on sending workers to Saudi Arabia will take effect.
  • Aug. 1: India and Japan will implement a comprehensive free trade agreement.
  • Aug. 1: The free trade agreement between South Korea and Peru will take effect.
  • Aug. 1: The legalization process for thousands of illegal immigrants in Malaysia will begin.
  • Aug. 1: Rare earth element producers must begin adhering to stricter environmental standards in China.
  • Aug. 3: Thailand’s House of Representatives is likely to convene its first session after the recent general election.
  • Aug. 6: Thailand’s Democrat Party will hold a convention to name a new party leader and a new executive board, including a secretary-general.

AMERICAS

  • Aug. 1: The next U.S. court hearing in the case of an alleged sexual assault by former International Monetary Fund head Dominique Strauss-Kahn is scheduled to take place in New York.
  • Aug. 1: Uruguayan Foreign Minister Luis Almagro will travel to Brasilia to meet with his Brazilian counterpart, Antonio Patriota, in order to follow up on energy agreements.
  • Aug. 1: The Cuban parliament will begin the first of two annual sessions and is expected to address the implementation of economic reforms.
  • Aug. 1: Honduran Foreign Minister Mario Canahuati will travel to Mexico to discuss immigrant issues with his counterpart Patricia Espinosa.
  • Aug. 1: British Minister of State for Latin America Jeremy Browne will visit Ecuador.
  • Aug. 1-2: Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos will travel to Mexico to meet with his counterpart Felipe Calderon.
  • Aug. 2: Uruguayan President Jose Mujica will meet with his Argentine counterpart Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner.
  • Aug. 3: Former Colombian Senator Piedad Cordoba is scheduled to make an announcement regarding the release of hostages held by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia.
  • Aug. 3-4: An international lithium seminar will take place in Jujuy and Salta, Argentina.
  • Aug. 4: Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos will meet with former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to participate in the first Brazil-Colombia Investment Forum.

AFRICA

  • Aug. 2: South Africa’s Gautrain railway system will expand its service through the introduction of its first high-speed train with daily Johannesburg-to-Pretoria service.
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