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Putine na China

A visita de Putine à China e seu significado estratégico, na análise da Stratfor.






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Dispatch: Putin’s Visit to China

October 12, 2011 | 2024 GMT

Asia Pacific Analyst Lena Bell examines the significance of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s trip to China — his first trip abroad since announcing his intention to run for the Russian presidency.

Editor’s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete accuracy.

On Oct. 11, Russia’s Vladimir Putin went to China on a two-day visit, bringing with him a 160-member delegation of business leaders. This is Putin’s first foreign trip after announcing his intention to run for the Russian presidency. A number of deals were struck during the two-day visit, roughly amounting to around seven billion U.S. dollars, but the biggest and most important deal — the one concerning Russian natural gas supply (cut out energy)energy supply to China — was nowhere closer to completion. This indicates to us at STRATFOR that the relationship between China and Russia, one of fundamental mistrust, has not significantly changed at all.

Putin choosing China is not an insignificant choice. It allows him to reassert himself firmly on the world stage, whilst having the eyes of the U.S. and the Europeans firmly planted on him. The trip was really designed to create a perception of China-Russian alliance; one that would allow Moscow greater leverage when talking to the U.S. and the Europeans at a later point, especially as the U.S. is now beginning to focus its attention outside of the Middle East for the first time in ten years. But in reality, this is a trip that was really designed as nothing more than publicity, because if it was anything different we would’ve seen a key natural gas deal as Russia is looking for additional energy consumers away from the European bloc, while China is looking for more energy suppliers.

But this deal did not happen and is unlikely to happen any time in near future. The key hang up here is the disagreement on the price. Moscow is unwilling to subsidize Chinese energy consumption and, at the same time, China is unwilling to pay the prices Russia is wanting for the gas. So even though seven billion dollars worth of deals did get struck during the two-day visit, after the Chinese had initially been frozen out of Russia’s privatization and modernization program, this is really less significant than the perception of the visit itself.

From China’s view, it doesn’t mind playing into these Sino-Russian perception too much either, because it may offer Beijing some reprieve from renewed U.S. focus on the Asia Pacific region and on China itself. But despite China’s public support of Putin, Beijing is increasingly worried about a resurgent Russia, particularly in Central Asia. China has spent the last few years building up its energy assets in the Central Asia region and is growing increasingly concerned a resurgent Russia threatens this. Ultimately the trip has allowed Beijing to take Moscow’s temperature and, at the same time, it has shaped global perceptions of the two countries’ relationship going forward.

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